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The International Council on Clean Transportation says delaying or weakening EU passenger-car CO₂ standards could result in a net loss of up to 185,000 European automotive jobs. Its analysis compares three policy scenarios and finds that keeping current standards would leave 2035 employment about 2% below 2025 levels; additional measures to expand EU production could raise it by around 10%. The estimates cover effects linked to the standards, not automation or broader economic changes.
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) says weakening or delaying EU passenger-car CO₂ standards could produce a net loss of up to 185,000 automotive jobs in Europe, challenging industry warnings that the current rules are the main threat to employment. The study compares three policy scenarios and says its estimates concern jobs linked to the standards, not wider forces such as automation or economic conditions.
In its 58-page report, “Powering jobs: employment under the EU’s passenger car CO₂ standards,” the ICCT models employment under current standards, under those standards combined with measures to encourage production in the EU, and under a scenario that delays the standards by five years. The last scenario is a modelling assumption, not a description of an adopted EU policy.
The report finds that employment differences between the scenarios are relatively small through 2030, but grow by 2035. Under current standards, employment is projected to be about 2% below its 2025 level in 2035. With additional industrial measures, the study projects net employment could be about 10% higher than in 2025. Under delayed standards, the ICCT warns of a net job loss, with the report’s headline estimate reaching up to 185,000 jobs.
The analysis weighs potential losses in internal-combustion-engine vehicle production against employment associated with electric vehicles, batteries, battery recycling and charging infrastructure. The ICCT argues that slower electrification could temporarily support some engine-related jobs while limiting growth in those other areas. The study says its policy-measures scenario assumes a higher EU production share of battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles; it does not model each proposed measure separately.
How Car Rules Could Shift Jobs
The findings matter to workers, manufacturers and policymakers because EU fleet rules affect the pace of investment and production across a supply chain that is changing from combustion engines to electric vehicles. The employment question is not only how many jobs may be retained in engine production, but whether growth in batteries, EV assembly, recycling and charging can offset those losses within Europe.
The ICCT’s results do not settle that debate. They show how employment could differ under its defined scenarios, rather than offering a count of guaranteed jobs. The report also suggests that regulation alone is not the only policy lever: measures that increase domestic production and value creation could affect the balance. For workers and companies, the practical outcome would depend on where production takes place and how quickly supply chains and skills adapt.
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EU Targets and Proposed Changes
Under the current EU framework described in the report, manufacturers must meet a fleet-average target of 93.6 grams of CO₂ per kilometre for 2025–2027, a 15% reduction from the 2021 baseline. The required reduction rises to 55% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. The 2035 target is described as effectively phasing out new internal-combustion cars from new sales, though the standards regulate fleet emissions.
The European Commission proposed changes in a draft “Auto Package” at the end of 2025. A proposal being considered by parliamentary committees would set a 95% reduction target for 2035 and allow a further 7.5 percentage points of reduction to be met through the use of climate-friendly European steel, according to the source report. That proposal has not completed the committee process and should not be treated as settled law.
The ICCT’s lead author, Sandra Wappelhorst, said:
“Weakening the CO₂ standards is being presented as a way to protect jobs, but our analysis shows the opposite.”She argued that the EU should pair its standards with measures to strengthen domestic EV supply chains. This is the study authors’ interpretation of their modelling, rather than a consensus finding attributed to the wider industry.
““Weakening the CO₂ standards is being presented as a way to protect jobs, but our analysis shows the opposite.””
— Sandra Wappelhorst, ICCT research lead and study lead author
Limits of the Employment Forecast
The up-to-185,000 figure is a scenario-based estimate, not a confirmed number of jobs already lost or a certain outcome. The source material does not specify in the excerpt the precise comparison baseline or full breakdown behind that maximum figure, so it should not be read as a year-by-year job count.
The study deliberately isolates the employment effects associated with CO₂ standards. It excludes automation, digitalisation, geopolitical developments and broader economic trends, and does not assess workforce retraining needs. Those factors could change future employment independently of the rules. The five-year delay is also a simplifying modelling choice; an actual relaxation could take other forms. The excerpt does not provide enough detail to assess every assumption or uncertainty in the full model.
It remains uncertain what final changes EU lawmakers will make, whether proposed production incentives or local-content measures will be adopted, and how manufacturers will respond. The report’s estimate is therefore a warning about possible outcomes, not a prediction that each scenario will occur.
EU Deliberations and Policy Choices
The proposal to revise the 2035 framework still needs to move through further parliamentary committee stages, according to the source report. The final text and its treatment of the target and European-steel provisions remain unsettled. Until the EU process advances, the current standards and the proposed relaxation should be distinguished clearly.
Further scrutiny of the ICCT analysis would need to examine the assumptions behind its employment scenarios, including the projected share of European EV production and how additional measures might change that share. Policymakers will also face the separate question of whether industrial support and worker training can help build domestic supply chains. The next concrete development is the progress of the proposal through the EU legislative process; its timing and final outcome are not specified in the material provided.
Key Questions
What does the ICCT say could happen if EU car CO₂ standards are relaxed?
The ICCT warns that delaying the standards could lead to a net loss of up to 185,000 automotive jobs in Europe under its modelled scenarios. This is a projection, not a confirmed job-loss count.
What employment outcome does the study project under current standards?
The report projects employment in 2035 at about 2% below the 2025 level if current standards remain in place. It says additional measures to promote EU production could lift net employment to around 10% above the 2025 level.
Have EU lawmakers agreed to weaken the 2035 target?
No final change is confirmed in the source material. A proposal has been discussed in parliamentary committees, but it still needs to pass further stages.
What does the ICCT study leave out?
The analysis focuses on employment effects linked to CO₂ rules. It excludes factors such as automation, digitalisation, geopolitical shifts and broader economic trends, and does not assess workforce upskilling needs.
Source: electrive.com
