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A year after the federal $7,500 EV tax credit expired on September 30, 2025, U.S. electric-car sales have recovered from an abrupt drop but remain uneven. Industry data cited by InsideEVs points to stronger recent sales and used-EV demand, while Tesla and Rivian account for much of the new-EV rebound. The full effect of the policy change remains difficult to isolate from other market factors.
U.S. electric-vehicle sales have partly recovered in the year since the federal $7,500 tax credit ended on September 30, 2025, but the rebound is uneven: Tesla and Rivian account for much of the new-EV momentum, while used EV sales are rising. The figures, reported by InsideEVs using data from JD Power, Cox Automotive and Cars.com, show a market adjusting to the loss of a major purchase incentive rather than returning uniformly to its previous trajectory.
The immediate drop followed a rush to buy before the credit expired. JD Power data cited by InsideEVs put EVs at more than 14% of U.S. retail car sales in September 2025. The share fell to 7.1% in October and 5% in November, its lowest level since 2022, before edging back above 6% in December and surpassing 8% in May. JD Power’s figure for September 2026 was 7.9% of retail sales, still below the pre-expiration peak.
That recovery has been concentrated. Cox Automotive estimated that U.S. EV sales rose 6.1% from the second to the third quarter, reaching about 262,000 vehicles, the highest quarterly level since the credit ended. Its estimates suggest sales would have declined slightly without Tesla. Tesla’s own U.S. regional sales are not reported separately, but Cox estimated the company’s third-quarter sales fell 19.7% year over year, compared with an almost 40% contraction for the overall market.
There are also signs of improving dealer inventory turnover. Cars.com data cited in the report showed the average EV took 89.4 days to sell in September, down from 115.6 days in March. Meanwhile, Cox Automotive reported more than 47,000 used EV sales in the latest month covered by the report, a 21% year-over-year increase and the largest share of the used-car market for EVs on record. These are separate indicators: the source does not establish that the credit’s expiration alone caused either trend.
A Recovery With Uneven Winners
The figures matter to buyers and automakers because the expired credit had lowered the effective cost of qualifying vehicles. Without it, demand depends more heavily on vehicle prices, financing, available inventory and fuel costs. A market rebound is therefore not proof that the lost incentive had no effect; the sharp fall after September 2025 shows how sensitive purchases were to the deadline and the buying rush that preceded it.
The split between companies also points to different exposure to policy changes. Tesla and Rivian sell only electric vehicles, while many established carmakers can shift investment and production toward gas-powered models. InsideEVs reports that traditional automakers have canceled or delayed roughly two dozen EV models since the policy shift. That may limit buyer choice, even as new models and lower-priced used vehicles provide other routes into the market.
Used-EV growth could make electric cars accessible to shoppers who cannot afford a new model, particularly as newer, longer-range vehicles return from leases. But the cited sales count does not reveal whether buyers are concentrated in particular price brackets, regions or vehicle types. Rising used sales are a positive market signal, not by themselves evidence that affordability barriers have disappeared.
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From Purchase Rush to Market Reset
The federal credit’s expiration was part of a broader policy change. The InsideEVs report says the Trump administration and Congress also rolled back fuel-economy regulations and other policies supporting EV adoption. Those changes affected the incentives facing buyers and manufacturers, although the source does not quantify the separate contribution of each policy to sales.
The September 2025 sales peak was followed by two forces: the credit’s disappearance and a pull-forward effect, as some buyers purchased vehicles before the deadline. Hyundai CEO José Muñoz described the shift as sudden for the company, saying it had to choose whether to add its own incentives, accept lost sales or take an intermediate approach. Sales later began to recover, but JD Power senior vice president Tyson Jominy said the market fell quickly and then reached a floor sooner than expected.
For new vehicles, the report identifies Tesla’s customer loyalty and Rivian’s newer R2 as factors supporting those companies. It also points to Toyota as an exception among established automakers, with EV sales growing as it introduced new models. In the used market, more recent long-range cars coming off leases have expanded the selection beyond older, lower-range models.
“All of a sudden, you either add the incentive, or you lose sales, or you do something in between.”
— Hyundai CEO José Muñoz, speaking to InsideEVs
What the Sales Figures Cannot Show
The data do not establish how much of the sales change was caused by the credit’s expiration rather than the buying rush beforehand, vehicle launches, pricing, interest rates or fuel prices. The figures also come from different organizations and cover different measures and periods, so they should not be treated as a single continuous sales series.
Tesla does not report U.S. regional sales separately, and the Cox figures cited are estimates. The source report also gives limited detail on the latest used-EV sales month and its comparison with the broader used-car market. It does not provide a complete account of the fourth takeaway implied by its headline: the supplied material focuses on the sales rebound, the concentration of new-EV growth, used-EV demand and shifting automaker plans. The durability of these trends remains uncertain.
Signals to Watch in Upcoming Data
Upcoming monthly and quarterly sales reports will show whether EV share continues to recover or stalls below the September 2025 peak. Dealer days-to-sell figures can help indicate whether inventory is moving faster, while quarterly brand data will show whether growth remains concentrated in Tesla and Rivian or spreads to more automakers.
Used-EV sales and the supply of recently leased vehicles will also be worth tracking, alongside prices and fuel costs. The source report does not identify a new federal incentive or a specific policy milestone expected to reverse the credit’s expiration. For now, the clearest next test is whether sales and inventory trends persist beyond the initial adjustment period.
Key Questions
When did the federal EV tax credit end?
The source report says the $7,500 credit expired on September 30, 2025.
Did EV sales keep falling after the credit ended?
They dropped sharply in October and November 2025, then began recovering. JD Power data cited by InsideEVs put EVs above 8% of retail sales in May and at 7.9% in September 2026; the report does not show a return to the September 2025 peak of more than 14%.
Which companies are driving the new-EV rebound?
The report identifies Tesla and Rivian as major contributors. Cox Automotive estimated that overall third-quarter sales would have declined slightly without Tesla, while Rivian’s deliveries benefited from its R2.
Are used EVs selling better?
Yes, according to Cox Automotive data cited in the report: more than 47,000 used EVs sold in the latest month covered, up 21% year over year. The report attributes the stronger market partly to a larger selection of newer, longer-range vehicles.
Does the report prove the credit’s end caused the sales decline?
No. The figures show a steep decline after expiration and a later partial recovery, but they cannot separate the credit’s effect from the pre-deadline buying rush, vehicle supply, pricing, fuel costs and other market changes.
Source: insideevs.com
